Big Data Predicts China's New Economic After The Two Sessions

The sudden new outbreak of pneumonia has brought unprecedented impact on my country's economic and social development. From a domestic point of view, the economy is in a critical period of transforming the development mode, optimizing the economic structure, and transforming the growth momentum. From an international perspective, the impact of the epidemic has caused a deep recession in the world economy and increased geopolitical risks. Under the two changes, the GDP in the first quarter of this year dropped by 6.8% year-on-year, and the economic operation was under greater pressure.

In the two sessions of 2020, the government work report outlines China's economic and social development trend with a series of pragmatic measures. Arrange local bonds, start "new infrastructure", create new models, and create new advantages of the digital economy-under the new opportunities that continue to emerge, what new "windows" will the Chinese economy usher in? "Economic Reference News" reporter walked into more than ten big data companies and conducted research from four dimensions: production, consumption, market and employment.

Look at production-strong momentum for resumption of production, "digital transformation", "small and medium-sized enterprises" and "policy tools" attract attention

Turn the screen at will, you can view the product details in a panoramic manner; enter keywords such as color and style, you can freely match the furniture, preview the setting scene... With the application of 3D shopping technology, many furniture brands try to open the door on the cloud Welcome."

"Digital interconnection will enable regional integration to achieve the effect of '3+1>4'." Zhang Yong, Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group's Board of Directors, said at the 2nd Yangtze River Delta Integration Development Forum held recently , The Yangtze River Delta should create "a cloud".

Digital transformation allows people to see new ways to find opportunities in crisis during the normal prevention and control of epidemics. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document that it will promote the comprehensive collection and open sharing of industrial data, develop industry chain maps and supply chain maps, and help coordinated development. Some places try to use digital technology to find out the "pain points" and "difficulties" of the industrial chain, so as to reduce costs and increase efficiency for SMEs.

With the help of various policies, China Land started the upsurge of resuming production.

"Hefei started construction early, and the water conservancy construction project can normally work for 9 to 10 hours a day." "Recent excavator prices have increased recently, but a lot of work has been done in the countryside. It is still decided to start the second one." Users have recently left a message in the community of Tiejia under the service of construction machinery trading.

The iron armor data shows that since February, the average length of excavator construction, the number of active users, and the volume of transactions have all increased, even exceeding the level of the same period last year. The overall monthly comparable operating rate in May increased by 4.3 percentage points from the same period last year.

"The excavator's operating hours are regarded as the weather vane of the construction machinery and engineering construction industry boom." Iron Construction's founder and CEO Fan Jianshe said that the data of the excavator on the platform can effectively explain the resumption of production on the construction site.

It is worth noting that since March, the excavator market has started a wave of price increases across the country. "The epidemic has affected the supply chain of overseas core components, and domestic brands have proposed price increases of around 10% in April. However, the sales of new phones and mobile phones in May still increased by more than 50%." Fan Jianshe said on the one hand There is real demand in the market. On the other hand, the price increase is still within the user's acceptable range compared with the price drop caused by the price war last year.

The market recovery has laid the foundation for the recovery of small and medium-sized enterprises, and effective policy tools have become important expectations for enterprises.

As soon as the two sessions of the country are over, two innovative measures to reach SMEs-the Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise loan extension support tool and the Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise credit loan support plan have been released. Local governments are also accelerating their actions. Sichuan Province has recently issued the "Key Points of Sichuan Province’s 2020 Private Economy and the Development of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises". Fujian Province has issued twenty-four opinions to help small and medium-sized enterprises. Revised draft)".

Zhu Wuxiang, a professor in the Finance Department of the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, and other experts believe that the implementation of the new round of policies is worth looking forward to. For SMEs, it is also necessary to innovate business models from within. Enhancing online capabilities is not only the key to the survival of the normal epidemic prevention and control stage, but also the key to seizing the opportunity.

Look at consumption-data starts to pick up: "direct sales", "consumption coupons" and "live streaming" have become new keywords

Zhejiang Sanhe Kitchenware Co., Ltd. was originally an international brand OEM company. During the epidemic period, it increased its efforts to "export to domestic sales", and cooperated with Pinduoduo and other e-commerce platforms to collect consumer preferences, price needs and other information to guide factory research and development. New product. This C2M (customer-to-factory) direct sales model helped Sanhe's "Maifan stone non-stick frying pan" to sell more than 90,000 pieces in total.

Some industry insiders pointed out that removing the bloated middlemen is the general trend of future sales.

The market has begun to respond. Geely Automobile and the auto industry platform Dasou Auto announced that they will jointly build a digital car direct sales network to achieve a seamless connection between manufacturers and users through big data. Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said that the Ministry of Commerce will support the Hubei Pilot Free Trade Zone to explore the establishment of a C2M industrial base, support relevant areas to carry out supply chain innovation and application pilots, and improve the supply chain system for strategic emerging industries.

The epidemic changed the traditional sales model. Meizhou Dongpo, Juran Home (8.050, -0.04, -0.49%), Tongrentang (26.400, 0.22, 0.84%), Miyun Honey... More and more products have achieved sales growth through live streaming. Not long ago, Dong Mingzhu, chairman and president of Zhuhai Gree Electric (61.920, -0.47, -0.75%) Co., Ltd., sold 310 million yuan in a three-hour live broadcast. Zeng Guang'an, chairman of Guangxi Liugong (6.530, 0.05, 0.77%) Group Co., Ltd., walked into the live broadcasting room to load loader and excavator.

"Why is live broadcast bringing goods popular? The answer is simple. Live broadcast e-commerce is a new blue ocean of traffic." Zhang Rong, sales manager of Chengdu Liuwei E-commerce Technology Co., Ltd. said that live broadcast provides a richer form of product display than the platform, and cooperates with the anchor 'S wonderful commentary, the conversion rate is better than other e-commerce methods.

The change in sales model is aimed at boosting the economy through consumption.

Young actor Wang Yibo, as the first spokesperson of Didi Chuxing's online product offering, will experience the Hutong culture in Beijing, go to Guangzhou to taste delicious refreshments, and take a photo in Chengdu and the giant panda... for the 1.5 billion yuan coupons recently distributed by Didi Chuxing Propaganda.

"Taxi is an important link for commuting, leisure travel and other life scenarios. Didi Travel distributes consumer coupons, hoping to spur various scenarios and industry recovery that are closely related to travel." Fu Qiang, CEO of Didi Travel's ride-hailing platform company, said.

It is understood that Hangzhou has already issued 1.68 billion yuan of consumer coupons and Nanjing has issued 318 million yuan of consumer coupons... "This year's '618' online shopping festival will hopefully help some companies start a'return battle' and lay the foundation for development in the second half of the year." Alibaba Group Vice President Liu Bo said.

The recovery of consumption is a complex and long-term process. Experts such as Shen Guobing, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics at Fudan University, Zhang Jiqiang, deputy director of Huatai Securities (18.200, 0.27, 1.51%) and chief analyst of fixed income, believe that issuing consumer coupons can expand temporary domestic demand in the short term. However, in the case of no increase in residents' income, early consumption is the "borrowing" of the next period of consumption and cannot constitute the main driving force for consumption growth. The release of consumer demand ultimately depends on the restoration of the expected income from economic and employment recovery.

Look at the market-the loss of traditional orders, "online" "health" "high-end" has become a new growth point

"From the end of January to the present, zero-connected tour and zero income." As a senior leader of Ctrip's long-term tour group tour, Zhang Ping has been in the tour guide industry for more than 10 years. She has never encountered the situation in front of her. Since the “heavy-headed” businesses such as cross-provincial group tours and outbound tours are still not open, Zhang Ping can only continue to wait. It seems that "recovery" has nothing to do with her.

"After the freezing period of the epidemic, it is now a very good opportunity to rebuild and improve the structure of tourist customers." Ctrip CEO Sun Jie said that the first to launch high-quality, more favorable products will be able to better grasp the industry Window period of recovery. During the epidemic, Liang Jianzhang, co-founder of Ctrip and chairman of the board of directors, conducted 12 live broadcasts in less than 3 months, bringing the total value of the goods to more than 400 million yuan.

The epidemic has accelerated the integration of the physical and virtual worlds—tourism, office, shopping, education, and medical services are all rapidly expanding online. The digital economy may become an important engine driving economic growth.

Take tourism as an example. During the “May Day” this year, Ctrip and the Kuaishou platform launched the “Travel with Kuaishou” activity. On May 1st, the number of short video broadcasts exceeded 530 million times, driving Lianyungang (3.440, 0.01, 0.29%) scallops and Anxi. Tieguanyin, Linyi Mengyin County Baihuami and other specialty agricultural products (7.770, 0.05, 0.65%) are sold.

In addition to digitalization, high-end products have become new consumer choices during the normal period of epidemic prevention and control due to their safety. According to Ctrip's data, during the "May 1st" holiday, five-star hotels accounted for 50% of nights in hotel orders. The number of users choosing high-end travel or selected small groups has grown significantly.

Further combing the big data, we can find that during the May Day this year, the tourism products with the label of "safe travel" are more popular. Among Ctrip's self-operated follow-up products, 70% of tourists chose "safe travel".

Wearing masks, meal-sharing systems, health codes... Under the epidemic, health has become the primary concern of people. Many people in the industry believe that housing, travel, insurance and many other industries will be combined with health in the future. Baidu search data confirms this: the search volume for health insurance has risen by more than 20% in the first two months of this year.

"Kangyang Tourism will become an important breakthrough in the tourism industry." Chen Anze, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences and a researcher in tourism geology, said that shortly after the end of the SARS epidemic in 2003, there was a climax in the development of health tourism. At present, we should study how to create high-quality health care products, and carry out work such as talent, brand, product, and comprehensive environmental evaluation.

Looking at employment-traditional industries are under great pressure, and "flexible employment", "cloud recruitment" and "small store economy" are opening

The Big Fruit and Vegetable Basket (Beijing Xinjiekou Store), located at No. 4 Dongguanying Hutong in Beijing, is a small shop selling fresh fruits and vegetables. During the epidemic, Lu Yingjun, the owner of the store, joined Meituan’s fresh food distribution. Online sales drove the overall turnover at least double, and activated multiple jobs.

The digital economy is unleashing a strong job adsorption capacity. Alibaba data shows that from March to May this year, take-away riders, anchors, heads of rookie stations, shopkeepers of small shops, shopkeepers and other highly flexible and flexible jobs have become new employment hot spots. According to Baidu's big data, "Cloud Watching Exhibition", "Cloud Crosstalk", "Cloud Appreciation" and "Cloud Concert"... Many industries have found new growth points in live broadcasts and created new jobs.

Under the epidemic, contactless "cloud recruitment" has become a new way of employment. Recently, the northern talent market organization employers in Tianjin and more than 200 high-level job seekers from all over the country conducted digital recruitment through online remote connection. Recruitment of multiple senior management talent positions with annual salary above 400,000.

Wang Hongyu, 25, of Shenze County, Hebei Province, originally worked in a local clothing processing factory. Affected by the epidemic, the factory did not start construction in time and Wang Hongyu had no source of income. The recruitment information released by another company attracted her, and through the WeChat video and the company's personnel leader "cloud test", the next day she received a hiring notice.

Finding ways to protect employment and people's livelihood has become the most urgent proposition of the whole society.

Zhilian Recruitment found that by monitoring online recruitment data in 38 major cities across the country, during the spring job search period in 2020, the national talent job search competition index (received resumes posted/number of jobs posted) was 46.3, which means that on average every 46.3 people To compete for a position, the competition index increased by 11.8. The epidemic made it harder to find a job.

Further analysis of the data reveals that the recruitment needs of small and micro enterprises have shrunk significantly. Because the number of job offers has declined more than the amount of resumes delivered, the competition index has risen year-on-year. For example, the enterprise competition index of 500-999 people is 52.1, the enterprise competition index of 100-499 people is 47.5, and the enterprise competition index of 20-99 people is 38.4.

Behind the tens of millions of small shops is the livelihood and watch of ten million families.

"In the short term, it is necessary to allow small and medium-sized enterprises and industries that are more affected by the epidemic to survive as soon as possible." Shen Guobing said that the demand for small and medium-sized enterprises should be tilted and supported to complement the shortcomings in financial services; Businessmen actively connect with SMEs to find new markets and opportunities.

The interviewed experts believe that China has the most complete and largest industrial system in the world, with more than 100 million market players and more than 170 million highly educated or possessing various professional skills, as well as more than 400 million middle-income groups. The huge domestic demand market formed by the 1.4 billion people has huge potential for investment. As long as we insist on a comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term perspective on current difficulties, risks, and challenges, and actively guide the entire society, especially all types of market players, to increase confidence, we will be able to nurture new opportunities in the crisis and start new situations in the face of change.